November/December 2012
Summary:
Effects of quantitative easing on emerging markets weakening
Fiscal cliff looming for the United States
Economic situation in Japan deteriorates further?
Signs of a mild strengthening of economic activity in China
The initial rounds of quantitative easing (QE) by developed country central banks in 2008 and 2009 are estimated to have had mixed effects on emerging market economies (EMEs). Brazil, among others, faced sudden and strong inflows of hot money causing currency appreciation. The real appreciated by more than 35 per cent over that period, perhaps exacerbating the general slowdown in?exports during that time. Asian EMEs showed more limited…
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 49
October 2012
Summary:
World trade continues to slow
Economic uncertainty continues in the eurozone
India?s government enacts significant reforms
Growth of world trade has slowed significantly during the year as a consequence of stalling economic activity in developed countries, especially in Europe. After growing by 5 per cent in 2011, the world trade volume expanded by an annualized rate of only 1.2?per cent in the second quarter of 2012.?Most European economies have entered into recession. While around 70 per cent of European trade is intra-European, the sharp?reduction in import demand is also affecting other economies.?
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Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 48
September 2012
Summary:
Slow growth in Europe affecting Asian exports
ECB and Fed announce new government bond-buying programmes
Growth slows in Brazil
The recessionary environment in Europe is directly affecting the growth prospects of many developing countries and economies?in transition by reducing demand for their exports. According to new figures from the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy?Analysis (CPB), the euro area?s second quarter import volume was down 4.2 per cent from a year ago. Eurostat data indicate that?Asian exports have been hit hardest.?
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Exports from East and South Asia to the EU fell by 7.2 per cent year on year and from Western Asia (including the Islamic…
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 47
August 2012
Summary:
Drought in large parts of the United States is pushing up world food prices
Emerging markets ease monetary policy to stimulate growth
The debt crisis in the eurozone remains a major source of uncertainty?
The severe drought affecting much of the United States is having a damaging impact on crops. The United States Agricultural?Department (USDA) has downgraded its forecast for maize output by 12 per cent. Futures prices for maize have jumped by over 50?per cent since mid-June. In addition, soybean prices have increased by about 40 per cent this year, while the prices for wheat and?maize are up by about 20 per cent.
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In response to slowing domestic growth and…
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 46
July 2012
Summary:
Marked deceleration in global trade
Progress made in EU bank recapitalization and growth pact
Growth slows in Brazil and India
Monthly data of global and regional trade confirm that a marked deceleration of international trade is underway. During the first?four months of this year, global trade volume was at a stand-still, contracting 0.1 per cent from December 2011 to April 2012, according to the latest data published by the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). While short-term trade data?fluctuated significantly, a decelerating trend emerged starting in December 2011, where monthly growth of 0.9 per cent was followed?by weak growth and subsequent…
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 45
June 2012
Summary:
Growth projections for the global economy revised downward
The jobs crisis continues
Euro area debt crisis and rising energy prices are key risks
Despite some scattered signs of improvement in recent months, the world economic situation and prospects continue to be challenging. After a marked slowdown in the course of 2011, global economic growth will likely remain tepid in 2012, with most regions?expanding at a pace below potential.?The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2012?projects that world gross product (WGP) will grow by 2.5 per cent in 2012 and 3.1 per cent in 2013, following growth of?2.7 per cent in 2011. This constitutes a slight downward…
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 44
May 2012
Summary:
Quantitative easing by developed countries imposing a tax on the rest of the world
IMF resources boosted by $430 billion
Unemployment continues to rise in Europe
Central banks of developed countries collected an enormous amount of seigniorage through ?quantitative easing? (QE) in two parts?over the last three years. The first part of seigniorage comes from the increases in the monetary base of these central banks through?appropriating the equivalent amount of sources from those who are holding the money. The seigniorage earned in this part over?the past three years is estimated at about $3 trillion (or 8 per cent of GDP of developed countries). In the three years prior…
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 43
April 2012
Summary:
Developed country central banks continue monetary easing
China records significant trade deficit in January and February
Hungary may become first country to face EU financial sanctions
In the United States, the Federal Reserve Bank embarked on a new scheme of quantitative easing (QE) aimed at lengthening the?maturity of its securities holdings. The Fed is planning to purchase $400 billion in Treasury bills with maturities of 6 to 30 years?and to sell an equal amount of short-term holdings by the end of June. In the euro area, as its statutes do not allow the ECB to act?as a lender of last resort for financing of sovereign debts, the ECB has launched two Longer-Term…
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 42
March 2012
Summary:
Rising oil price complicates global recovery
Agreement made for second rescue package to Greece
Growth slowed in India and Brazil in 2011
During most of February, oil traded above $120 per barrel, reaching levels not seen since May 2011. The increase was triggered in?part by speculation about possible military action against the Iranian nuclear programme and the consequences of a scheduled ban?on oil imports from Iran to be imposed by the European Union. Stalled oil exports from the Syrian Arab Republic and South Sudan?have limited supply by several hundred thousand barrels a day, putting further upward pressure on prices.?Oil prices reached record levels in Europe.…
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 41
February 2012
Summary:
ECB supporting private banks amidst fears of a credit crunch
EU leaders agree on a new fiscal compact enhancing fiscal discipline
Foreign reserves in Egypt hit dangerous low
The sovereign debt crises continue to place stress on European banks. The value of government bonds has fallen with the lowering of?credit ratings for many European countries. This has eroded the balance sheets of banks holding substantial amounts of those assets.?Subsequently, banks have cut lending ? especially to other banks ? and have opted instead to deposit money with the European?Central Bank (ECB), even more so in the final months of 2011. As a result, liquidity available in the…
Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects, No. 40
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