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Cover of World Economic Situation and Prospects: June 2025 Briefing, No. 190

World Economic Situation and Prospects: June 2025 Briefing, No. 190


Global macroeconomic outlook The global economic outlook as of mid-2025 has deteriorated notably, according to the latest World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) update. Global growth is now forecast to slow to 2.4 per cent in 2025, down from 2.9 per cent in 2024 and 0.4 percentage points below the January forecast (figure 1) This downward revision primarily reflects heightened trade tensions and intensified policy uncertainty, which are expected to strain global supply chains, raise production costs, and delay critical investment decisions, besides fuelling financial market volatility (figure 2).  According to UN DESA estimates, the effective tariff rate of the United…
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World Economic Situation and Prospects: April 2025 Briefing, No. 189

Navigating through an inflationary world The current inflation landscape Inflation has once again become a central topic among academics, policymakers, and in the daily lives of citizens. For much of the past two decades, inflation remained relatively low and stable in most developed and developing economies, even as a few countries experienced high inflation amid economic and financial crises or macroeconomic mismanagement. Between 2000 and 2020, global inflation averaged 3.4 per cent, compared to 8.0 per cent in the 1980s and 7.1 per cent in the 1990s. Even in developing countries, where inflation is typically higher and more volatile, it followed a downward trend since the mid-1990s,…
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World Economic Situation and Prospects: March 2025 Briefing, No. 188

The outlook for international trade amid structural shifts and rising restrictions Trends and prospects for global trade The trajectory of world trade has been unsettled in recent years. Following the pandemic-induced contraction and subsequent recovery, merchandise trade volumes declined slightly in 2023, with only services trade contributing to modest overall growth. In contrast, 2024 saw a stronger rebound as world trade expanded by an estimated 3.4 per cent (United Nations, 2025). Merchandise trade growth gained momentum in late 2024, in part because importers accelerated inventory purchases ahead of potential trade restrictions (Zhang and others, 2025). With international trade once…
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World Economic Situation and Prospects: February 2025 Briefing, No. 187

Subdued global outlook amid persistent uncertainties Global economic growth stays below pre-pandemic trends The world economy has shown remarkable resilience, with global growth projected at 2.8 per cent in 2025, the same as in 2024, and 2.9 per cent in 2026. This stability has been underpinned by continued disinflation, softening commodity prices, and monetary easing in many countries. However, ongoing conflicts, geopolitical tensions and potential trade restrictions, as well as climate risks pose significant challenges going forward (figure 1). The global economy is set to grow at a slower pace than the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 per cent recorded between 2010 and 2019, reflecting…
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Cover: World Economic Situation and Prospects: November 2024 Briefing, No. 186

World Economic Situation and Prospects: November 2024 Briefing, No. 186

Economic prospects and development challenges in landlocked developing countries Multiple, overlapping crises in recent years have greatly undermined economic and development prospects in landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) (figure 1). Although growth of LLDCs has largely stabilized, the economies are still suffering from the scarring effects of the pandemic. Their structural challenges – ranging from geographic remoteness and reliance on commodities to lack of social safety nets and vulnerability to climate disasters – have exacerbated LLDCs’ fragility. The Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs), which will take place in Gaborone, Botswana on 10–13 December 2024…
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Cover: World Economic Situation and Prospects: October 2024 Briefing, No. 185

World Economic Situation and Prospects: October 2024 Briefing, No. 185

Introduction The automotive industry plays a crucial role in the global economy, accounting for around 3 per cent of the world’s GDP. It has been a key driver of innovation, value creation, economic growth, and employment, particularly in developed economies like Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States. In recent years, the sector has faced intense scrutiny due to its contribution to climate change through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation, which accounts for approximately 16 per cent of global emissions. Partly in response, electric vehicles (EVs) have become increasingly important although their potential to contribute to emissions reduction could…
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Cover: World Economic Situation and Prospects: September 2024 Briefing, No. 184

World Economic Situation and Prospects: September 2024 Briefing, No. 184

Introduction: the return of conventional monetary policy After seeing near-zero interest rates in major economies in the aftermath of COVID-19, the world economy has experienced rapid monetary tightening since early-2022 (UNDESA, 2024a). Persistent inflationary pressures during the second half of 2021 due to stronger-than-expected recovery in demand, and supply shortages (figure 1) brought along the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades. Major central banks rapidly increased short term policy rates and began to reduce money supply and liquidity (figure 2). This rapid monetary tightening in developed economies was echoed in developing economies as well. As a result of this policy,…
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World Economic Situation and Prospects: August 2024 Briefing, No. 183 Cover

World Economic Situation and Prospects: August 2024 Briefing, No. 183


Two decades of Eastern Europe’s membership in the EU On 1 May 2004, eight countries from Eastern Europe – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia – the group often referred to as EU-8, along with Cyprus and Malta, became full-fledged members of the European Union (EU). This event is often called the “Big Bang” enlargement of the EU, with the set of pre-existing members being referred to as the EU-15. To be admitted to the EU, these eight Eastern European countries introduced widespread structural changes, aligned their domestic institutions with the EU’s common market rules and regulations, adopted EU’s acquis communautaire and reoriented…
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World Economic Situation and Prospects: July 2024 Briefing, No. 182 Cover

World Economic Situation and Prospects: July 2024 Briefing, No. 182

Prices on a warming planet: The Inflationary effects of Climate Change Climate change is no longer a distant threat. Its adverse impacts on both human societies and natural ecosystems are already unfolding across the world. The year 2023 was the warmest year on record by a clear margin, and records were broken for ocean heat, sea level rise and glacier retreat. The multifaceted nature of these impacts is evident through droughts, forest fires, excessive precipitation, floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, intense frost periods, and weather that defies seasonal patterns (figure 1a). Global surface temperature has increased faster in recent decades, reaching 1.1 °C above 1961-1990 average in 2023 (…
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World Economic Situation and Prospects: June 2024 Briefing, No. 181

Enhanced global economic outlook amid persistent vulnerabilities Global macroeconomic outlook The global economic outlook has improved since the previous forecast released in January 2024. Despite the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades, a hard landing scenario of the United States economy has largely receded. Most major economies have managed to bring down inflation without increasing unemployment and triggering a recession. However, the outlook is only cautiously optimistic as higher-for-longer interest rates, debt difficulties, and escalating geopolitical risks will continue to challenge stable and sustained economic growth. Ever-worsening climate shocks continue to pose…
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