Global economy shows resilience, but trade tensions and fiscal strains cloud outlook, UN warns

Declining inflation and monetary easing offer relief, yet subdued investment and lingering uncertainties weigh on global momentum.

Global economic output is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2026, slightly below the 2.8 per cent estimated for 2025 and well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 per cent, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, released by the United Nations today.

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5 things you need to know about the global economy in 2026

The global economy showed notable resilience in 2025, performing better than anticipated despite repeated shocks and heightened uncertainty. Trade flows continued to expand, and overall activity held up more strongly than many expected. The key question now is whether this resilience will persist into 2026. The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report — to be released on 8 January 2026 — offers some early answers.

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Understanding post-pandemic inflation: Insights from South Africa and Türkiye

Last month, UN DESA’s Economic Analysis and Policy Division hosted the fourth session of its Development Policy Seminar Series on the World Economic Situation and Prospects. The Seminar examined inflation dynamics in the post-pandemic era in South Africa and Türkiye with a view to discussing lessons learned from these episodes.

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