Macroeconomic Analysis

UN DESA’s Economic Analysis and Policy Division hosted a three-part Development Policy Seminar series in July to present new thinking on inflation. Discussions focused on issues such as inflation’s underlying drivers, its asymmetric impacts, and the implications for policy. The series will inform the World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2026.

The U.S. Government’s latest trade policy seeks to address its widening trade deficit, which has recently reached a historic annual high. Persistent trade deficits over the past decades, along with the resulting accumulation of external liabilities to finance them, have long been viewed as a key component of global imbalances.

Following the unprecedented changes in the trade policy of the United States, LDCs must contend simultaneously with significantly higher bilateral tariffs, policy uncertainty, lower growth prospects in many importing countries, a potential re-alignment of supply chains, and a disruption to the existing multilateral order.

Unilateral economic measures as a means of political and economic coercion against developing countries, 80th session, agenda item 16(a): Macroeconomic policy questions: international trade and development

The global economic outlook as of mid-2025 has deteriorated notably, according to the latest World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) update. Global growth is now forecast to slow to 2.4 per cent in 2025, down from 2.9 per cent in 2024 and 0.4 percentage points below the January forecast.

A sudden escalation of trade tensions has sent shockwaves through the global economy, dampening growth prospects while fueling uncertainty and inducing financial market volatility.

Geopolitical fragmentation, trade barriers, and climate change portend recurrent supply-side shocks, fuelling unpredictable inflationary pressures. These disruptions are increasing uncertainty and volatility, which complicate investment decisions and economic policymaking.

The near-term global trade outlook is fraught with uncertainties amid new tariffs and other trade restrictions. While recent history demonstrates that the global trading system is resilient, often adapting by finding alternative channels for sustaining commerce, policy uncertainty could hinder this process by discouraging necessary investments.

The world economy has shown resilience despite multiple shocks, but the outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing conflicts, geopolitical and trade tensions, climate risks, and mounting fiscal pressures.