Macroeconomic Analysis

Consumer inflation expectations are shaped by multiple factors—food and energy inflation remain crucial drivers, with persistent and large surges significantly shaping household expectations of inflation across countries.

The global economy is expected to experience subdued growth in the coming months amid a challenging trade environment and heightened macroeconomic uncertainties. The world economy is projected to grow by 2.5 per cent in both 2025 and 2026 — below the 2.8 per cent recorded in 2024 and the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 per cent (2010–2019).

In a reversal of a decades-long trend, central banks in many developing and some developed countries have increased their gold purchases over the past several years. The purpose of this policy is to enhance the diversity and stability of reserves: the share of the United States dollar in the international reserves of many central banks has been declining.

UN DESA’s Economic Analysis and Policy Division hosted a three-part Development Policy Seminar series in July to present new thinking on inflation. Discussions focused on issues such as inflation’s underlying drivers, its asymmetric impacts, and the implications for policy. The series will inform the World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2026.

The U.S. Government’s latest trade policy seeks to address its widening trade deficit, which has recently reached a historic annual high. Persistent trade deficits over the past decades, along with the resulting accumulation of external liabilities to finance them, have long been viewed as a key component of global imbalances.

Following the unprecedented changes in the trade policy of the United States, LDCs must contend simultaneously with significantly higher bilateral tariffs, policy uncertainty, lower growth prospects in many importing countries, a potential re-alignment of supply chains, and a disruption to the existing multilateral order.

Unilateral economic measures as a means of political and economic coercion against developing countries, 80th session, agenda item 16(a): Macroeconomic policy questions: international trade and development

The global economic outlook as of mid-2025 has deteriorated notably, according to the latest World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) update. Global growth is now forecast to slow to 2.4 per cent in 2025, down from 2.9 per cent in 2024 and 0.4 percentage points below the January forecast.

A sudden escalation of trade tensions has sent shockwaves through the global economy, dampening growth prospects while fueling uncertainty and inducing financial market volatility.