Rising levels of public debt fueling fiscal sustainability concerns in many developing countries
Several countries highly vulnerable to a sharp increase in government interest burden in the event of a financial shock
High debt service obligations limit the availability of resources to pursue development objectives
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Global issues
Rising fiscal vulnerabilities posing risk to development prospects in many developing countries
Growing headwinds in the global economy have triggered renewed turbulence in international financial markets over the past few months. Amid intensifying trade tensions between the major economies, investor sentiments have also been affected by…
World Economic Situation And Prospects: July 2018 Briefing, No. 116
This paper provides an overview of the conceptual and empirical issues involved in the overarching goal of "leaving no one behind" (LNOB). After reviewing some existing documents on the topic, it proposes ways to operationalize LNOB, discusses whether to take a country-focused or person-focused approach, examines various (multidimensional) ways to measure those who are left behind, argues for grounding LNOB on intrinsic and instrumental reasons, suggests ways to identify those at risk of being left behind, and discusses difficult trade-offs with other SDGs for an agenda focused on LNOB.
For more information on the CDP's work on "Leaving no one behind" go to: Leaving no one behind, poverty…
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One of the pillars of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is the pledge to ?leave no one behind?. This paper argues that we must recognise that many people throughout the world are not just being left behind. They are being pushed even further behind, and their levels of well-being are falling, often in ways from which it is impossible to fully recover. Indeed, many are confronted with forces that lead to their avoidable premature deaths. Thus, development policies should have as their first priority to ensure that no one is pushed behind.
The paper argues that this could be secured through a different way of framing economic policy, that focuses on the obligations of states to…
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Global growth expected to reach 3.2 per cent in 2018 and 2019
Key downside risks to the global economy include rising trade tensions, elevated debt and uncertainty over monetary policy adjustments in the developed countries
Recent strengthening of economic growth carries environmental costs
English: PDF (175 kb)
Global issues
Global economic prospects continue to strengthen, but risks have increased
Short-term prospects for the world economy have generally improved over the last six months. According to the World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2018 report, global economic growth is expected to reach 3.2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019, marking an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.1…
World Economic Situation And Prospects: June 2018 Briefing, No. 115
The UN Resolution heralding the Sustainable Development Goals pledges to leave no one behind, and moreover "to reach the furthest behind first". This priority echoes the priority to the worst-off that is being discussed in philosophy, economics and related disciplines, but also the pleas of many actors who represent or fight for the most disadvantaged populations. This paper argues that serious theories do support such a priority and that the best policies implementing this priority do not necessarily involve the most intuitive anti-poverty targeted measures.
For more information on the CDP's work on "Leaving no one behind" go to: Leaving no one behind, poverty, human and social…
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The paper focuses on two crucial issues that hinder the fiscal sovereignty of developing countries: the reduced level of international tax cooperation, and the lack of appropriate procedures for sovereign debt crisis resolution. The low level of international tax cooperation enables a race to the bottom in tax rates among countries, tax avoidance through profit-shifting activities by companies and tax evasion by individuals and companies, based on the existence of non-cooperative jurisdictions.
In the last five years, the international community has made some improvements in this field, but the situation remains far from satisfactory. On the other hand, the current procedure for sovereign…
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Rising trade tensions pose a risk to the global trade outlook
Africa marks an historic step towards the creation of a regional trade bloc
English: PDF (172 kb), EPUB (339 kb)
Global issues
Escalation of trade policy disputes poses risk to recovery in global trade
World trade growth accelerated over the course of 2017, and has remained firm in the first months of 2018. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the volume of merchandise trade expanded by 4.7 per cent in 2017, following growth of just 1.8 per cent in 2016. This acceleration was largely driven by cyclical improvements, including a notable increase in investment growth in developed economies. Investment is the most…
World Economic Situation And Prospects: May 2018 Briefing, No. 114
The paper examines whether the planned eradication of poverty to the year 2030 part of the SDG strategy is compatible with the expected trends in key economic variables such as GDP growth, population growth, income inequality and food prices. To do so, the paper develops a comparative static, poverty-accounting model that allows to simulate to 2030 the impact on SDG1 of the fastest improvements recorded for the above four variables during the last 30 years.
Numerous model simulations show that, even under the most favorable assumptions, between 16 and 28 countries (mainly from Africa) out of the 78 analyzed will not reach the SDG1 target. Policy suggestions on how to improve on such…
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Short-term prospects for the world economy continue to strengthen, but more efforts are needed to ensure the gains are widely shared
Weak productivity growth and a lack of secure employment are constraining progress in many countries in Africa, Latin America and Western Asia
Rising inequality in many countries pose a risk to medium-term growth prospects
English: PDF (214 kb)
Global issues
Stronger global economic growth, but risks are building
Over the last several months, short-term prospects for the world economy have continued to strengthen. This stems from a further uptick in the growth outlook for developed economies in 2018, on the strength of accelerating wage growth, broadly…
World Economic Situation And Prospects: April 2018 Briefing, No. 113
The development cooperation system is undergoing a dramatic process of change. New actors are on stage, new instruments (beyond ODA) are being used, and the fields of work have been clearly widened. The enlargement of the development cooperation system is in line with the ambitious and comprehensive 2030 Agenda. However, those changes also imply massive tensions and challenges to the current development cooperation system in terms of its objectives, procedures and narrative.
This paper presents some of these challenges in light of the "leaving no-one behind" mandate. The paper discusses, firstly, how the development cooperation system can be brought up to date, taking into account massive…
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