Monthly Briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects

The global macroeconomic outlook continues to change amid growing uncertainties, pronounced monetary policy tightening and roiling financial markets.

The war in Ukraine will significantly impact global efforts to deal with the climate emergency by driving up energy prices and placing energy security at the heart of policy making in many countries.

Inflation is rising in many developing countries, driven by higher energy and food prices, supply chain disruptions and, in some cases, release of pent-up demand. Many central banks have responded with significant interest rate hikes.

The Ukraine war may lead to global, regional and national crises on multiple fronts: a refugee crisis; energy, metals and food price shocks; disruptions in global trade; and distress in financial markets.

Forthcoming changes in US monetary policy will have significant impacts on countries? net international investment positions, likely pushing some least developed countries to greater indebtedness.

The world has emerged from the depths of a paralyzing economic crisis, but recovery remains fragile amid the lingering pandemic, persistent labour market challenges, ongoing supply-chain disruptions and rising inflation.

Favourable terms of trade provide much needed policy room to combat the pandemic and advance transformative reforms that can sustainably reduce poverty and inequality.

Despite unemployment remaining above pre-pandemic levels, advanced economies are confronted with labour shortages. Ageing population, migration patterns, low wages and concerns about workplace safety explain the phenomenon.

The October Monthly Briefing takes a closer look at the results of the most recent bank lending survey by the European Central Bank (ECB), which provides some insights into the shape of economic activity in the euro area.