Macroeconomic Analysis

Global growth may have reached a peak Firms in the United States and Japan are facing capacity constraints Manufacturing activity slows in developed and developing economies

Santiago, 5-7 September Global Economic Outlook, September

Russian Federation commits to halving poverty by 2024 China turns to pro-growth measures to mitigate the impact of the trade disputes Fiscal pressures creating significant policy challenges in Latin America

High commodity dependence and structural barriers hindering long-term growth prospects of many developing countries; intensifying trade tensions between the major economies poses a significant risk to the global growth outlook; recent financial market turbulence exposes vulnerabilities in several developing economies

Improved economic performance in the global economy increasingly overshadowed by heightened risks and humanitarian concerns; armed conflicts a major impediment to progress on sustainable development; need for a redoubling of policy efforts to support conflict prevention and resolution

Rising levels of public debt fueling fiscal sustainability concerns in many developing countries Several countries highly vulnerable to a sharp increase in government interest burden in the event of a financial shock High debt service obligations limit the availability of resources to pursue development objectives

Global growth expected to reach 3.2 per cent in 2018 and 2019 Key downside risks to the global economy include rising trade tensions, elevated debt and uncertainty over monetary policy adjustments in the developed countries Recent strengthening of economic growth carries environmental costs

Rising trade tensions pose a risk to the global trade outlook Africa marks an historic step towards the creation of a regional trade bloc

Short-term prospects for the world economy continue to strengthen, but more efforts are needed to ensure the gains are widely shared Weak productivity growth and a lack of secure employment are constraining progress in many countries in Africa, Latin America and Western Asia Rising inequality in China and India poses a risk to medium-term growth prospects