Publications | Economic Analysis and Policy Division

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02 June 2025

World Economic Situation and Prospects: June 2025 Briefing, No. 190

Global macroeconomic outlook The global economic outlook as of mid-2025 has deteriorated notably, according to the latest World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) update. Global growth is now forecast to slow to 2.4 per cent in 2025, down from 2.9 per cent in 2024 and 0.4 percentage points below the January forecast (figure 1) This downward revision primarily reflects heightened trade tensions and intensified policy uncertainty, which are expected to strain global supply chains, raise production costs, and delay critical investment decisions, besides fuelling financial market volatility (figure 2). According to UN DESA estimates, the effective tariff rate of the United…

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15 May 2025

World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2025

The world economy is at a precarious moment. Heightened trade tensions, along with policy uncertainty, have significantly weakened the global economic outlook for 2025. Higher tariffs—resulting in a significant increase in the effective tariff rate in the United States of America—are likely to strain global supply chains, drive up production costs and delay critical investment decisions, while also contributing to financial market volatility. Global economic growth is now projected to slow to 2.4 per cent in 2025, down from 2.9 per cent in 2024, and 0.4 percentage points below the January forecast. The downward revisions in growth forecasts are broad-based, affecting both developed and…

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World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2025

01 April 2025

World Economic Situation and Prospects: April 2025 Briefing, No. 189

Navigating through an inflationary world The current inflation landscape Inflation has once again become a central topic among academics, policymakers, and in the daily lives of citizens. For much of the past two decades, inflation remained relatively low and stable in most developed and developing economies, even as a few countries experienced high inflation amid economic and financial crises or macroeconomic mismanagement. Between 2000 and 2020, global inflation averaged 3.4 per cent, compared to 8.0 per cent in the 1980s and 7.1 per cent in the 1990s. Even in developing countries, where inflation is typically higher and more volatile, it followed a downward trend since the mid-1990s,…

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01 November 2024

World Economic Situation and Prospects: November 2024 Briefing, No. 186

Economic prospects and development challenges in landlocked developing countries Multiple, overlapping crises in recent years have greatly undermined economic and development prospects in landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) (figure 1). Although growth of LLDCs has largely stabilized, the economies are still suffering from the scarring effects of the pandemic. Their structural challenges – ranging from geographic remoteness and reliance on commodities to lack of social safety nets and vulnerability to climate disasters – have exacerbated LLDCs’ fragility. The Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs), which will take place in Gaborone, Botswana on 10–13 December 2024…

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01 October 2024

World Economic Situation and Prospects: October 2024 Briefing, No. 185

Introduction The automotive industry plays a crucial role in the global economy, accounting for around 3 per cent of the world’s GDP. It has been a key driver of innovation, value creation, economic growth, and employment, particularly in developed economies like Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States. In recent years, the sector has faced intense scrutiny due to its contribution to climate change through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation, which accounts for approximately 16 per cent of global emissions. Partly in response, electric vehicles (EVs) have become increasingly important although their potential to contribute to emissions reduction could…

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02 September 2024

World Economic Situation and Prospects: September 2024 Briefing, No. 184

Introduction: the return of conventional monetary policy After seeing near-zero interest rates in major economies in the aftermath of COVID-19, the world economy has experienced rapid monetary tightening since early-2022 (UNDESA, 2024a). Persistent inflationary pressures during the second half of 2021 due to stronger-than-expected recovery in demand, and supply shortages (figure 1) brought along the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades. Major central banks rapidly increased short term policy rates and began to reduce money supply and liquidity (figure 2). This rapid monetary tightening in developed economies was echoed in developing economies as well. As a result of this policy,…

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01 August 2024

World Economic Situation and Prospects: August 2024 Briefing, No. 183

Two decades of Eastern Europe’s membership in the EU On 1 May 2004, eight countries from Eastern Europe – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia – the group often referred to as EU-8, along with Cyprus and Malta, became full-fledged members of the European Union (EU). This event is often called the “Big Bang” enlargement of the EU, with the set of pre-existing members being referred to as the EU-15. To be admitted to the EU, these eight Eastern European countries introduced widespread structural changes, aligned their domestic institutions with the EU’s common market rules and regulations, adopted EU’s acquis communautaire and reoriented…

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01 July 2024

World Economic Situation and Prospects: July 2024 Briefing, No. 182

Prices on a warming planet: The Inflationary effects of Climate Change Climate change is no longer a distant threat. Its adverse impacts on both human societies and natural ecosystems are already unfolding across the world. The year 2023 was the warmest year on record by a clear margin, and records were broken for ocean heat, sea level rise and glacier retreat. The multifaceted nature of these impacts is evident through droughts, forest fires, excessive precipitation, floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, intense frost periods, and weather that defies seasonal patterns (figure 1a). Global surface temperature has increased faster in recent decades, reaching 1.1 °C above 1961-1990 average in 2023 (…

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15 May 2024

Handbook on the Least Developed Country Category: Inclusion, Graduation and Special Support Measures – Fifth Edition

The Handbook on the Least Developed Country Category contains comprehensive and authoritative information on criteria defining the category, graduation procedures, and international support measures for LDCs. This revised edition reflects recent developments in the LDC category, including refinements to the LDC criteria and the progress of several countries towards graduation from the category. Moreover, it contains updated information on international support measures, including on “smooth transition” provisions for countries graduating from the LDC category The Handbook, prepared by the Committee for Development Policy (CDP) and the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), is…

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01 April 2024

World Economic Situation and Prospects: April 2024 Briefing, No. 180

Debt Sustainability Challenges in Africa: The Role of Domestic Debt In 2024, more low-income countries are facing debt distress or are at risk of debt distress than ever before. According to the latest IMF low-income countries debt sustainability analysis, 10 countries are in debt distress, while 52 countries are at moderate or high risk of debt distress. Out of these 62 countries, 40 are in Africa. African countries have suffered gravely from global shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and spillover effects of high interest rates in many developed countries, which have increased debt levels across the continent. Debt levels are particularly high in the continent’s…

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