Publications | Economic Analysis and Policy Division

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01 December 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: December 2022 Briefing, No. 167

Energy crisis poses threat to Europe?s industrial sector Europe is facing a difficult and uncertain economic outlook. Governments, households, and firms are grappling with the energy and cost-of-living crisis that was aggravated by the war in Ukraine. As high energy prices are increasingly feeding through to other sectors of the economy, inflationary pressures have become more broad-based. In October 2022, year-on-year consumer price inflation in the European Union climbed to a record high of 11.5 per cent. The cost of energy remained the biggest driver of overall inflation, with energy prices rising by 38.7 per cent from a year ago. Core inflation ? excluding energy, food, alcohol, and… World Economic Situation and Prospects: December 2022 Briefing, No. 167

01 November 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: November 2022 Briefing, No. 166

Economic downturn poses further risks for food security Severe food insecurity continues to escalate across the world. The number of people affected by acute hunger nearly doubled between 2016 and 2021 (figure 1). In 2022, the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) and requiring urgent assistance is likely to climb to over 200 million across 53 countries and territories, up from 193 million in 2021. Almost a million people live in famine conditions (IPC/CH Phase 5), facing starvation and death ? ten times more than six years ago. Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen all have populations facing or projected to face starvation… World Economic Situation and Prospects: November 2022 Briefing, No. 166

03 October 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: October 2022 Briefing, No. 165

What does a strong U.S. dollar mean for developing countries? In recent months, the U.S. dollar has reached historic high levels in two decades, as the United States Federal Reserve increased its interest rates aggressively since March 2022, amid stubbornly high inflation. Higher interest rates and the relative stability of the United States? economy have boosted the dollar?s appeal and triggered the ?flight to safety? in the international capital market. The impact of the Ukraine conflict on energy prices has deteriorated the economic outlook in Europe, while COVID-19 shutdowns continue to undermine China?s near-term growth prospects. For the developing countries, rising interest rates in… World Economic Situation and Prospects: October 2022 Briefing, No. 165

01 September 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: September 2022 Briefing, No. 164

A bleak outlook for the global economy: Slowing growth, high and persistent inflation, and elevated uncertainties cloud global economic outlook The global outlook has deteriorated markedly throughout 2022 amid high inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, and uncertainties from both the war in Ukraine and the lingering pandemic. Soaring food and energy prices are eroding real incomes, triggering a global cost-of-living crisis, particularly for the most vulnerable groups. Growth in the world?s three largest economies?the United States, China, and the European Union?is weakening, with significant spillovers to other countries. At the same time, rising government borrowing costs and large… World Economic Situation and Prospects: September 2022 Briefing, No. 164

01 August 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: August 2022 Briefing, No. 163

Prospects and challenges of introducing a central bank digital currency During the last decade, an increasing number of central banks launched research and carried out several pilot programs on developing and introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), a digital payment instrument, which is a direct liability of the central bank. To a large extent, CBDC will replicate the functions of paper money ? such as store of value, unit of account, and medium of exchange, and have the same basic characteristics as durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability. Those activities and associated policy dilemmas and challenges are becoming particularly… World Economic Situation and Prospects: August 2022 Briefing, No. 163

01 July 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: July 2022 Briefing, No. 162

Mixed views on global economic outlook amid rising inflation and volatile markets The global macroeconomic picture continues to evolve. On 15 June, the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, hiked its main policy rate by 0.75 percentage points?its largest increase in 28 years. The rate hike was higher than had been expected. Since the US consumer price inflation rate is increasingly likely to remain high as its core rate reached 6.0 per cent in May, the US central bank is expected to raise the policy rates further in the coming months. Soon after, the Swiss National Bank raised its policy interest rate for the first time in 15 years amid mounting inflation expectations,… World Economic Situation and Prospects: July 2022 Briefing, No. 162

01 June 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: June 2022 Briefing, No. 161

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Global growth prospects have weakened significantly amid the war in Ukraine The World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2022 warns that the global economy may be on the cusp of a new crisis, while still recovering from the pandemic. The war in Ukraine has upended the fragile global recovery, triggering a devastating humanitarian crisis in Europe, pushing up food and commodity prices, slowing growth globally and exacerbating inflationary pressures worldwide. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties are dampening business confidence and investment and further weakening short-term economic prospects. Against this backdrop, the world economy is now projected to… World Economic Situation and Prospects: June 2022 Briefing, No. 161

03 May 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: May 2022 Briefing, No. 160

Download the PDF Rising inflation hits developing countries Global inflation is rising substantially, driven by higher energy and food prices, persistent supply chain disruptions, and tight labor markets in major developed economies. In the United States, inflation has reached multi-decade highs in recent months, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and initiate a global monetary tightening cycle. Rising inflation in the developed economies has received considerable attention. At the same time, inflation in developing countries ? generally higher and more volatile than in developed countries ? is also rising markedly and becoming more widespread as well. The return of… World Economic Situation and Prospects: May 2022 Briefing, No. 160

05 April 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: April 2022 Briefing, No. 159

Download the PDF Potential economic fallout from the war in Ukraine Human costs continue to mount since the beginning of the Ukraine war on 24 February 2022. By late March, at least 1,119 civilians have been killed and at least 1,790 injured while many of the victims are still not accounted for. More than 10 million Ukrainians (out of 44 million) have been forcible displaced, 4 million of them abroad and 6.5 million within the country. In addition to the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and its direct socioeconomic impact on Ukraine?s neighbouring countries, the impact of the war has been spreading through multiple channels on the world economy. This Monthly Briefing aims to depict the… World Economic Situation and Prospects: April 2022 Briefing, No. 159

01 March 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: March 2022 Briefing, No. 158

Download the PDF Trends in net international investment positions during the pandemic The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022 highlighted potential financial market corrections to monetary policy tightening in developed economies, particularly the United States, as a downside risk factor to the world economy. The Federal Reserve Board is expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate, its primary policy interest rate, in March this year. This monthly briefing reviews the recent trends in net international investment positions of a number of countries, and the backdrop of the impending policy rate hike and monetary tightening by the central bank of the United States. What is net… World Economic Situation and Prospects: March 2022 Briefing, No. 158