Publications | Economic Analysis and Policy Division

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05 April 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: April 2022 Briefing, No. 159

Download the PDF Potential economic fallout from the war in Ukraine Human costs continue to mount since the beginning of the Ukraine war on 24 February 2022. By late March, at least 1,119 civilians have been killed and at least 1,790 injured while many of the victims are still not accounted for. More than 10 million Ukrainians (out of 44 million) have been forcible displaced, 4 million of them abroad and 6.5 million within the country. In addition to the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and its direct socioeconomic impact on Ukraine?s neighbouring countries, the impact of the war has been spreading through multiple channels on the world economy. This Monthly Briefing aims to depict the… World Economic Situation and Prospects: April 2022 Briefing, No. 159

01 March 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: March 2022 Briefing, No. 158

Download the PDF Trends in net international investment positions during the pandemic The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022 highlighted potential financial market corrections to monetary policy tightening in developed economies, particularly the United States, as a downside risk factor to the world economy. The Federal Reserve Board is expected to raise the Federal Funds Rate, its primary policy interest rate, in March this year. This monthly briefing reviews the recent trends in net international investment positions of a number of countries, and the backdrop of the impending policy rate hike and monetary tightening by the central bank of the United States. What is net… World Economic Situation and Prospects: March 2022 Briefing, No. 158

01 February 2022

World Economic Situation and Prospects: February 2022 Briefing, No. 157

Download the PDF After a strong recovery in 2021, global growth momentum is losing steam The World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2022 warns that global economic recovery hinges on a delicate balance amid new waves of COVID-19 infections, persistent labour market challenges, lingering supply-chain constraints and rising inflationary pressures. After a global contraction of 3.4 per cent in 2020 and following an expansion of 5.5 per cent in 2021, the highest rate of growth in more than four decades, the world economy is projected to grow by 4 per cent in 2022 and 3.5 per cent in 2023. World gross product in 2021 was 1.9 per cent higher than in 2019 but still 3.3 per cent below… World Economic Situation and Prospects: February 2022 Briefing, No. 157

01 December 2021

World Economic Situation And Prospects: December 2021 Briefing, No. 156

Reversing the setback to global poverty?will a commodity super-cycle help? The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked twin economic and social crises that resulted in the first increase in global poverty in decades. The number of people living in extreme poverty?at $1.90 per day globally?is estimated to have escalated by 10 per cent in 2020 and remains at the highest level in almost a decade (figure 1). Island economies registered among the highest increases in both number and share of poor population (Cabo Verde, Jamaica, Madagascar) as well as some landlocked economies (Chad, Ethiopia, Uganda). Prior to the pandemic, poverty was projected to decrease by 2 per cent globally, in line with a slow pace of… World Economic Situation And Prospects: December 2021 Briefing, No. 156

01 November 2021

World Economic Situation And Prospects: November 2021 Briefing, No. 155

Advanced economies are facing large-scale labour shortages The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 2020 caused an unprecedented and severely disruptive shock to labour markets worldwide. Despite the immense efforts to protect employment and to support businesses undertaken in the majority of countries around the globe, unemployment reached alarming levels in 2020, leading to erosion of incomes and pushing many households into poverty. Although the global economy has been gradually rebounding over the course of 2021, the speed of job creation is generally lagging to compensate for the earlier employment losses, especially in developing economies. This is especially true… World Economic Situation And Prospects: November 2021 Briefing, No. 155

01 October 2021

World Economic Situation And Prospects: October 2021 Briefing, No. 154

The ECB?s bank lending survey: The euro area?s economic pulse is coming back Introduction The global pandemic has left severe scars on economic activity across the globe. This is no less true for the economies of the euro area, which saw widespread lockdowns after the outbreak of the pandemic in the spring of 2020 and various renewed phases of ramping down public life thereafter due to surges in pandemic infection rates. With the onset of broad vaccination campaigns, vaccination rates have been steadily increasing and the euro area economy has been on a path of recovery. A host of fiscal policies provided strong support in this respect, and monetary policy has been maintaining a very… World Economic Situation And Prospects: October 2021 Briefing, No. 154

01 September 2021

World Economic Situation And Prospects: September 2021 Briefing, No. 153

Is unconventional monetary policy reaching its limits? Since the beginning of the twin public health and socioeconomic crises caused by COVID-19, central banks around the globe have implemented far-reaching monetary policies to calm panicky markets, stimulate economic activity, and boost inflation. Just like after the global financial crisis of 2007?08, unconventional monetary policy has played a crucial part in the response to COVID-19. Developed country central banks, for one, have purchased trillions worth of assets through their central banks? quantitative easing (QE) programmes. But the pandemic has also marked a turning point for monetary policy among developing countries. For the… World Economic Situation And Prospects: September 2021 Briefing, No. 153

02 August 2021

World Economic Situation And Prospects: August 2021 Briefing, No. 152

Spillover effects of US monetary policy in developing economies Economic activity is bouncing back in several countries, supported by increased government spending, stimulatory monetary policy, health and border measures to limit COVID-19 infections and deaths, and the rollout of vaccines. In recent weeks, most countries have seen an uptick in the number of COVID-19 infections, associated with the rise of a new, more transmissible variant. Yet, countries with higher vaccination rates have been able to gradually reopen their economies as reflected in increased consumer demand and prices (figure 1). US in the lead Pent-up US demand, underpinned by federal stimulus and pandemic-fuelled savings… World Economic Situation And Prospects: August 2021 Briefing, No. 152

01 July 2021

World Economic Situation And Prospects: July 2021 Briefing, No. 151

Global economic recovery threatens to leave many developing countries behind The past few months have brought a string of upbeat news on the global economy, suggesting a vigorous recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. World merchandise trade has soared and is already well above the pre-pandemic level (figure 1). Similarly, global industrial production has seen a V-shaped recovery since the middle of last year. The prices of key raw materials, such as copper, iron ore and lumber, reached record levels in the second quarter of 2021. Crude oil prices climbed to a 2-year high above $70 per barrel in June. Meanwhile, capital flows to developing countries have rebounded since late 2020, driven by… World Economic Situation And Prospects: July 2021 Briefing, No. 151

08 June 2021

World Economic Situation And Prospects: June 2021 Briefing, No. 150

Greater gender equality is essential for post-pandemic recovery Before the COVID-19 crisis reversed much of the world?s progress on sustainable development outcomes, most societies were already struggling with persistent and oftentimes growing inequalities in opportunities, income and wealth. The twin public health and economic crises have worsened some of the world?s most pressing inequalities, laying bare the destructive impact of labour market inequities, the digital divide, and discriminatory access to public resources and education. Even though unemployment soared and extreme poverty shot up, the rich enjoyed handsome gains from rising asset prices. These injustices have left behind… World Economic Situation And Prospects: June 2021 Briefing, No. 150