Prices on a warming planet: The Inflationary effects of Climate Change
Climate change is no longer a distant threat. Its adverse impacts on both human societies and natural ecosystems are already unfolding across the world. The year 2023 was the warmest year on record by a clear margin, and records were broken for ocean heat, sea level rise and glacier retreat. The multifaceted nature of these impacts is evident through droughts, forest fires, excessive precipitation, floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, intense frost periods, and weather that defies seasonal patterns (figure 1a). Global surface temperature has increased faster in recent decades, reaching 1.1 °C above 1961-1990 average in 2023 (…
Enhanced global economic outlook amid persistent vulnerabilities
Global macroeconomic outlook
The global economic outlook has improved since the previous forecast released in January 2024. Despite the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades, a hard landing scenario of the United States economy has largely receded. Most major economies have managed to bring down inflation without increasing unemployment and triggering a recession. However, the outlook is only cautiously optimistic as higher-for-longer interest rates, debt difficulties, and escalating geopolitical risks will continue to challenge stable and sustained economic growth. Ever-worsening climate shocks continue to pose…
Near-term global economic outlook cautiously optimistic as vulnerabilities remain
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SIDS Economic Outlook: English
The global economic outlook has improved since January, with major economies avoiding a severe downturn. The world economy is now projected to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2024, instead of 2.4 per cent forecasted earlier, on the back of better-than-expected performance of the United States economy and some improvement in the outlook for several large emerging economies. The modest gain in the growth momentum is partly offset by the downward revisions of…
Debt Sustainability Challenges in Africa: The Role of Domestic Debt
In 2024, more low-income countries are facing debt distress or are at risk of debt distress than ever before. According to the latest IMF low-income countries debt sustainability analysis, 10 countries are in debt distress, while 52 countries are at moderate or high risk of debt distress. Out of these 62 countries, 40 are in Africa. African countries have suffered gravely from global shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and spillover effects of high interest rates in many developed countries, which have increased debt levels across the continent. Debt levels are particularly high in the continent’s…
Protracted period of low growth looms large, undermining progress on sustainable development
The world economy continues to face multiple crises, jeopardizing progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although global economic growth outperformed expectations in 2023 with several large economies showing remarkable resilience, simmering geo-political tensions and the growing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events have increased underlying risks and vulnerabilities. Furthermore, tight financial conditions also pose increasing risks to global trade and industrial production.
"2024 must be the year when we break out of this quagmire. By unlocking big, bold…
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The revival and changing nature of industrial policy
Industrial policies are gaining increasing relevance, becoming centrepieces of many government policy agendas. These policies aim at changing the structure or sectoral composition of the economy in line with strategic and medium-term goals, such as export diversification, technology upgrading and industrialisation. As such, industrial policies include a broad range of issues, including ?infant industry? support, science, technology and innovation (STI) policies, trade and foreign direct investments policies and intellectual property rights, public procurement policies, and policies shaping the allocation of financial resources (Chang,…
World Economic Situation and Prospects: November 2023 Briefing, No. 177
Labour markets in developed economies ? signs of stabilization?
During the first three quarters of 2023, the state of labour markets in the developed economies continued to return to their pre-pandemic conditions, at least in terms of key headline indicators. The post-pandemic rebound in employment in these economies were quite swift, compared with the protracted labour market recovery that followed the global financial crisis of 2008?2009. Since early 2021, many developed economies, with the exception of the United Kingdom, saw a continuing decline in unemployment rates (figure?1), while the employment rates that reflect economic activity of the population reached historically high levels…
World Economic Situation and Prospects: October 2023 Briefing, No. 176
The need for energy transition
Energy transition is at the core of fighting against climate change and achieving net-zero by 2050. It refers to the global energy sector?s shift from a fossil-fuels based energy system to one that is based on renewable sources such as solar and wind. It is a systemic change that involves a structural transformation in the production and consumption of energy. Therefore, it requires significant amounts of investment in energy transition technologies which includes power generation, storage and distribution, energy efficiency, electrified transport and district heat, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) (IRENA, 2023a). A truly net-zero economy also…
World Economic Situation and Prospects: September 2023 Briefing, No. 175
Recent trends in domestic food prices
Food prices surged over the past few years owing to multiple shocks. Between 2019 and 2021, extreme weather events and supply chain disruptions derived from the pandemic drove up domestic food price inflation (measured as a component of the Consumer Price Index) in many countries. In 2022 domestic food inflation became more common across the world, reaching multi-decade highs in several countries amid the spillover effects of the war in Ukraine, higher international commodity prices and a surging US dollar. Headline inflation also rose significantly in most economies, in part due to the importance of food and energy in the consumption basket. While…
World Economic Situation and Prospects: August 2023 Briefing, No. 174
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