Global Economic Monitoring Branch (GEMB)

The global economic outlook as of mid-2025 has deteriorated notably, according to the latest World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) update. Global growth is now forecast to slow to 2.4 per cent in 2025, down from 2.9 per cent in 2024 and 0.4 percentage points below the January forecast.

A sudden escalation of trade tensions has sent shockwaves through the global economy, dampening growth prospects while fueling uncertainty and inducing financial market volatility.

Geopolitical fragmentation, trade barriers, and climate change portend recurrent supply-side shocks, fuelling unpredictable inflationary pressures. These disruptions are increasing uncertainty and volatility, which complicate investment decisions and economic policymaking.

The near-term global trade outlook is fraught with uncertainties amid new tariffs and other trade restrictions. While recent history demonstrates that the global trading system is resilient, often adapting by finding alternative channels for sustaining commerce, policy uncertainty could hinder this process by discouraging necessary investments.

The world economy has shown resilience despite multiple shocks, but the outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing conflicts, geopolitical and trade tensions, climate risks, and mounting fiscal pressures.

Global growth to remain subdued amid lingering uncertainty. Lower inflation and monetary easing offer relief, but trade tensions, high debt burdens, and geopolitical risks cloud the outlook.

Economic growth in landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) is expected to be steady in the near term but remains well below the average in the pre-pandemic decade. Substantial downside risks remain, including commodity price volatility, debt challenges, climate disasters and geopolitical tensions.

The global automotive market is experiencing transformative shifts, with China emerging as a leading force in electric vehicle (EV) production and exports. In contrast, traditional powerhouses like Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States are facing stiff competitiveness challenges.

After seeing near-zero interest rates in major economies in the aftermath of COVID-19, the world economy has experienced rapid monetary tightening since early-2022 (UNDESA, 2024a). Persistent inflationary pressures during the second half of 2021 due to stronger-than-expected recovery in demand, and supply shortages brought along the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades.