Policy space in many developing countries constrained by El Ni?o
Further improvement in labour market conditions in Europe and the United States
Monetary stance eases in the CIS but tightens in Africa
Global issues
The world economy continues to face major headwinds. A tumultuous start in global commodity and financial markets early in the year suggests that these headwinds are unlikely to ease in the near term, although markets have largely stabilized in the past month and some recent indicators for developed economies suggest more solid labour market developments. The continued depressed commodity prices have important ramifications for both exporters and importers of commodities. The…
World Economic Situation and Prospects: April 2016 Briefing, No. 89
Is the zero lower bound no longer a hard constraint?
EU-wide strategy to address refugee crisis remains elusive
Drought leads to a spike in food prices in Africa and Latin America
Global issues
Widening divergences in global monetary policy stances
During the global financial crisis of 2008/09, the major central banks in the developed economies cut interest rates to near-zero levels. At that time, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates was viewed as a hard constraint on monetary policy. This constraint was grounded in the premise that cash bears an implicit interest rate of zero per cent. The imposition of a negative rate?implying that the lender would pay the borrower for the…
World Economic Situation and Prospects: March 2016 Briefing, No. 88
Commodity price rout dampens regional growth prospects
China emphasized the need to improve productivity through policies on the supply side of the economy
Bank of Japan adopts a negative interest rate
Global issues
Commodity price further dampens growth prospects
The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 (WESP 2016), launched in December 2015, foresaw only tepid growth in the global economy in 2016. A tumultuous start to the year in global commodity and financial markets has deteriorated the outlook further. The price of Brent crude has been below $50 per barrel (pb) since mid-October 2015, and plunged to its lowest level since 2003, at just $27 pb, in mid-January 2016. The…
World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing No. 87
January Summary
Limited global financial market reaction to Fed's interest rate move
IMF includes Chinese renminbi in the SDR basket
Monetary tightening in Western Asia and Latin America in response to Fed's first rate hike in seven years
Global issues
Beginning normalization of the policy rate by the Fed elicits limited reaction in the financial market
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on 16 December, a move that had been anticipated by financial markets. The United Nations flagship publication World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016, launched on 10 December 2015…
World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing No. 86
According to chapter one of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016, only a modest improvement in the world economy is projected for the next two years
Recessions in the Russian Federation and Ukraine may have reached a turning point
Unemployment on the rise in a number of South American economies
Global issues
The world economy stumbled in 2015, amid weak aggregate demand, falling commodity prices and financial market volatility
According to chapter one of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016, launched on 10 December 2015, the world gross product is projected to grow by a mere 2.4 per cent in 2015. This represents a significant downward revision from the 2.8 per cent…
World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing No. 85
? The United States of America avoids a fiscal stand-off ?
Emerging economies brace for net capital outflows for the first time in many years ?
Third quarter growth in China beats expectations
Global issues
Oil prices expected to remain low in the medium term
In the past week, oil and mineral prices rallied after China cut interest rates for the sixth time in a year. Speculation over the impact of China's monetary stimulus on output growth animated commodity markets, but the price gain was rather short-lived. Given that China remains the main commodity importer at the global level, the market expectations regarding the Chinese growth prospects has had significant impact on commodity…
World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing No. 84
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12 October 2015 Summary
Global trade flows drops in value terms amid persistently weak commodity prices and stronger US dollar
Budget cuts and increasing fiscal strains in many commodity-exporting developing countries
Global issues
Widening gap between values and volumes in global trade
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), total value of international trade has dropped for three consecutive quarters up to the second quarter of 2015 (see table). For the first half of 2015, total world trade value measured in US dollars was about 13 per cent lower than the same period in 2014. This rapid deterioration appeared unevenly across regions. The Commonwealth…
World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing No. 83
Global issues
Decline in capital inflows to emerging markets gains pace
Capital inflows to emerging economies continued a gradual but steady decline, amid domestic weaknesses and less favourable external conditions, including lower commodity prices and expectations of monetary tightening in the United States of America. In recent months, portfolio inflows to emerging economies fell markedly, particularly in some Asian countries such as China and Thailand, and also in other countries such as Mexico and Turkey. After reaching $16.5 billion in April, equity inflows dropped to $3.9 billion in June and to $1.6 billion in July, their lowest level in 2015. Bond inflows also remained subdued,…
14 September 2015 Summary
Volatility soars in global financial markets
Concerns over China's economy are mounting
Stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the U.S., while economic growth slows in many developing countries
Global issues
Financial market volatility heightened sharply
Volatility in global financial markets heightened sharply in August, amid rising concerns about a further slowdown in some major emerging economies, including Brazil, China and the Russian Federation, and the uncertainties about the forthcoming increase in the policy interest rate in the United States of America.
International commodities, particularly crude oil, have seen large price swings over the past month,…
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May 2015 Summary
U.S. dollar softens against a wide range of currencies
East Asian exports weaker than expected during the first quarter
Labour market in Brazil starts to deteriorate, after several years of falling unemployment rates
Global issues
U.S. dollar exchange rate softens against many currencies
After about one year of continuous strong appreciation, the U.S. dollar has experienced a noticeable depreciation since mid-March 2015. Over the span of the seven weeks until the end of April, it depreciated by about 3 per cent.1 Out of a basket of 48 currencies, the U.S. dollar depreciated against 34 currencies…
World Economic Situation and Prospects Monthly Briefing No. 78
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